A large-scale study on the seroprevalence of small ruminant lentiviral infection in the Polish goat population

Abstract

A large-scale study was carried out in a Polish goat population in 2014-2022 to determine the herd-level (between-herd) and within-herd seroprevalence of small ruminant lentivirus (SRLV) infection. A total of 8354 adult goats (aged >1 year) from 165 herds located in various regions of Poland were serologically tested using a commercial ELISA. One hundred twenty eight herds were randomly selected while 37 were enrolled based on convenience non-random sampling. At least 1 seropositive result was obtained in 103 / 165 herds. For all these herds the probability that they were truly positive (herd-level positive predictive value) was calculated. It was ≥ 90% in 91 seropositive herds and 73% to < 90% in 12 herds in which only 1-4 goats were seropositive (22 goats in total). The seropositive goats in the latter herds were retested using a different commercial ELISA and 14 goats (9 males and 5 females) from 9 herds were confirmed to be seropositive (serial testing). The true herd-level seroprevalence was estimated at 61% (95% confidence interval [CI 95%]: 53%-68%). It differed significantly between herd size classes (p = 0.003): the highest prevalences were found in the medium (51 - 100 adult goats) and large herds (>100 adult goats) - 72% (CI 95%: 56-84%) and 86% (CI 95%: 67%-95%), respectively, while prevalences in very small (≤ 20 adult goats) and small herds (21 - 50 adult goats) were 46% (CI 95%: 34%-59%) and 57% (CI 95%: 43%-70%), respectively. The true herd-level seroprevalence differed significantly also between geographical regions of Poland (p = 0.003), with the highest values in the north-western and the lowest in the southern region of the country. The true within-herd seroprevalence estimated using a Bayesian approach ranged from 0.7% to 100% with the median (IQR) of 42% (17%-84%), and did not vary significantly between herd size classes (p = 0.393) or geographical regions of Poland (p = 0.570). Concluding, SRLV infection is widespread in the Polish goat population, the north-western region of Poland is most extensively infected, and herds counting > 50 adult goats are more often infected.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis; Between-herd seroprevalence; Caprine arthritis-encephalitis; ELISA; Herd-level seroprevalence; Within-herd seroprevalence.