Risk stratification of solitary hepatocellular carcinoma ≤ 5 cm without microvascular invasion: prognostic values of MR imaging features based on LI-RADS and clinical parameters

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate the potential of preoperative MR imaging features and clinical parameters in the risk stratification of patients with solitary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) ≤ 5 cm without microvascular invasion (MVI) after hepatectomy.

Methods: The study enrolled 166 patients with histopathological confirmed MVI-negative HCC retrospectively. The MR imaging features were evaluated by two radiologists independently. The risk factors associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) were identified by univariate Cox regression analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression analysis. A predictive nomogram was developed based on these risk factors, and the performance was tested in the validation cohort. The RFS was analyzed by using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves and log-rank test.

Results: Among the 166 patients with solitary MVI-negative HCC, 86 patients presented with postoperative recurrence. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that cirrhosis, tumor size, hepatitis, albumin, arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE), washout, and mosaic architecture were risk factors associated with poor RFS and then incorporated into the nomogram. The nomogram achieved good performance with C-index values of 0.713 and 0.707 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. Furthermore, patients were stratified into high- and low-risk subgroups, and significant prognostic differences were found between the different subgroups in both cohorts (p < 0.001 and p = 0.024, respectively).

Conclusion: The nomogram incorporated preoperative MR imaging features, and clinical parameters can be a simple and reliable tool for predicting RFS and achieving risk stratification in patients with solitary MVI-negative HCC.

Key points: • Application of preoperative MR imaging features and clinical parameters can effectively predict RFS in patients with solitary MVI-negative HCC. • Risk factors including cirrhosis, tumor size, hepatitis, albumin, APHE, washout, and mosaic architecture were associated with worse prognosis in patients with solitary MVI-negative HCC. • Based on the nomogram incorporating these risk factors, the MVI-negative HCC patients could be stratified into two subgroups with significant different prognoses.

Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Magnetic resonance imaging; Nomogram; Prognosis.