Defining estimands in clinical trials: A unified procedure

Stat Med. 2023 May 30;42(12):1869-1887. doi: 10.1002/sim.9702. Epub 2023 Mar 8.

Abstract

The ICH E9 (R1) addendum proposes five strategies to define estimands by addressing intercurrent events. However, mathematical forms of these targeted quantities are lacking, which might lead to discordance between statisticians who estimate these quantities and clinicians, drug sponsors, and regulators who interpret them. To improve the concordance, we provide a unified four-step procedure for constructing the mathematical estimands. We apply the procedure for each strategy to derive the mathematical estimands and compare the five strategies in practical interpretations, data collection, and analytical methods. Finally, we show that the procedure can help ease tasks of defining estimands in settings with multiple types of intercurrent events using two real clinical trials.

Keywords: causal inference; clinical trials; estimands; intercurrent events; post-treatment variables.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Data Collection
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Research Design*