External supply risk of agricultural products trade along the Belt and Road under the background of COVID-19

Abstract

Agricultural product trade along the Belt and Road (B&R) is an important part of the international food security system, the vulnerabilities of which have been highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the complex network analysis, this study analyzes the characteristics of agricultural products trade network along the B&R. It also combines the effects of COVID-19 with the import trade volume of agricultural products in countries along the B&R to build a risk supply model of agricultural products. The results show that: (1) In 2021, the spatial correlation structure of agricultural products trade along the B&R became increasingly sparse, and the network connectivity and density also decreased. (2) The network showed obvious scale-free distribution characteristics and obvious heterogeneity. Five communities emerged under the influence of the core node countries, but the formation of community in 2021 had obvious geopolitical characteristics. (3) Under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, the number of countries with medium-risk and high-risk level along the route facing external dependence risk (R_EDI), import concentration risk (R_HHI) and COVID-19 epidemic risk (R_RICI) increased in 2021, and the number of countries with extremely low-risk level decreased. (4) The dominant risk type of external supply of agricultural products along the route changed from compound risk type in 2019 to epidemic risk in 2021. Hence, the results can be expected to prevent external risk impact from reducing excessive concentration of agricultural products trade and excessive dependence on the external market.

Keywords: Belt and Road; COVID-19 pandemic; agricultural products trade; complex network analysis; external supply risk.