Air pollution as a substantial threat to the improvement of agricultural total factor productivity: Global evidence

Abstract

Objective: This study aims to provide empirical evidence about whether and to what extent air pollution affects the global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP).

Methods: The research sample covers 146 countries all over the world during 2010-2019. Two-way fixed effects panel regression models are used to estimate air pollution's impacts. A random forest analysis is conducted to assess the relative importance of independent variables.

Results: The results show that, on average, a 1% increase in fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and tropospheric ozone (O₃) concentration would cause the agricultural TFP to decline by 0.104% and 0.207%, respectively. Air pollution's adverse impact widely exists in various countries with different development levels, pollution degrees, and industrial structures. This study also finds that temperature has a moderating effect on the relationship between PM_2.5 and agricultural TFP. PM_2.5 pollution's detrimental impact is weaker (stronger) in a warmer (cooler) climate. In addition, the random forest analysis confirms that air pollution is among the most crucial predictors of agricultural productivity.

Conclusions: Air pollution is a substantial threat to the improvement of global agricultural TFP. Worldwide actions should be taken to ameliorate air quality, for the sake of agricultural sustainability and global food security.

Keywords: Agriculture; Air pollution; O(3); PM(2.5); Total factor productivity.