The risk assessment of arsenic contamination in the urbanized coastal aquifer of Rayong groundwater basin, Thailand using the machine learning approach

Abstract

The rapid expansion of urbanization has resulted in an insufficient of groundwater resource. In order to use groundwater more efficiently, a risk assessment of groundwater pollution should be proposed. The present study used machine learning with three algorithms consisting of Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to locate risk areas of arsenic contamination in Rayong coastal aquifers, Thailand and selected the suitable model based on model performance and uncertainty for risk assessment. The parameters of 653 groundwater wells (Deep=236, Shallow=417) were selected based on the correlation of each hydrochemical parameters with arsenic concentration in deep and shallow aquifer environments. The models were validated with arsenic concentration collected from 27 well data in the field. The model's performance indicated that the RF algorithm has the highest performance as compared to those of SVM and ANN in both deep and shallow aquifers (Deep: AUC=0.72, Recall=0.61, F1 =0.69; Shallow: AUC=0.81, Recall=0.79, F1 =0.68). In addition, the uncertainty from the quantile regression of each model confirmed that the RF algorithm has the lowest uncertainty (Deep: PICP=0.20; Shallow: PICP=0.34). The result of the risk map obtained from the RF reveals that the deep aquifer, in the northern part of the Rayong basin has a higher risk for people to expose to As. In contrast, the shallow aquifer revealed that the southern part of the basin has a higher risk, which is also supported by the location of the landfill and industrial estates in the area. Therefore, health surveillance is important in monitoring the toxic effects on the residents who use groundwater from these contaminated wells. The outcome of this study can help policymakers in regions to manage the quality of groundwater resources and enhance the sustainable use of groundwater resources. The novelty process of this research can be used to further study other groundwater aquifers contaminated and increase the effectiveness of groundwater quality management.

Keywords: Arsenic; Groundwater contamination; Groundwater risk assessment; Machine learning; Spatial probability model; Thailand.