GIS-based fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of urban flooding risk with socioeconomic index system development

Abstract

Due to the climate change-induced extreme rainfall, urban flooding risk is one of the major concerning risks in the near future with accelerating occurrence frequency and intensity. To systematically evaluate the socioeconomic impacts induced by urban flooding, this paper proposed a GIS-based spatial fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) framework for local government to efficiently take contingency measures especially under urgent rescue conditions. The risk-assessing procedure could be investigated in 4 aspects: 1) application of the hydrodynamic model to simulate the depth and extent of inundation; 2) quantification of the impact of flooding with 6 methodically picked evaluation indexes concerning the transportation attenuation, residential security, and tangible and intangible monetary losses according to depth-damage functions; 3) implementing FCE method: comprehensive evaluation of urban flooding risk with the diverse socioeconomic indexes by fuzzy theory; and 4) presenting the risk maps of single and multiple impact factors intuitively in ArcGIS platform. The detailed case study in SA city validates the effectiveness of the adopted multiple index evaluation framework, which could help detect higher risk areas with low transport efficiency, high economic loss, high social impact, and high intangible damage. The results of single-factor analysis can also provide feasible suggestions for decision-makers and other stakeholders. Theoretically, the proposed method tends to improve the evaluation accuracy as the inundation distribution can be simulated by hydrodynamic model rather than subjective prediction with hazard factors, while the impact quantification with flood-loss models can also directly reflect the vulnerability of involved factors instead of empirical weight analysis of traditional methods. Besides, the results illustrate that the areas with higher risk levels reasonably coincide with severe inundation situations and dense hazard-bearing bodies. This systematic evaluation framework can support applicable references for further extension to other similar cities.

Keywords: Flood-loss model; Geographic information system; Multiple index evaluation framework; Risk assessment; Urban flooding.