Analysis of influencing factors and prediction of carbon emissions of typical urban agglomerations in China: a case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Abstract

Achieving the "double carbon" goal is a major task and challenge facing China. The emission reduction actions in typical urban agglomerations are of great significance. Based on the consideration of the impact of regional coordinated development, this study analyzed influencing factors and conducted prediction of carbon emissions from terminal energy consumption in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. Firstly, the factors affecting carbon emissions were screened through the STIRPAT model. Then, the paper designs different scenarios and finally uses the genetic algorithm extreme learning machine (GA-ELM) algorithm to predict the carbon emissions of the BTH region, with and without considering the impact of the coordinated development strategy. The research shows that the increase in energy intensity and the improvement of energy consumption structure have the largest promotion effect on carbon emission reduction. At the same time, the significant role of the coordinated development strategy in promoting regional carbon emission reduction was verified. Therefore, the BTH region should adhere to the path of coordinated development, innovate low-carbon technology, and deepen the concept of green consumption to promote the realization of regional carbon emission reduction goals.

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region; Carbon emissions; Carbon peak; Coordinated development; Scenario analysis; Urban agglomeration.