Background: This paper looks to validate the risk score from the Heart Failure Association of the European Society of Cardiology and the International Cardio-Oncology Society (HFA-ICOS) for predicting potential cardiotoxicity from anticancer therapy for patients positive for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2.
Methods: A total of 507 patients with at least five years since index diagnosis of breast cancer were retrospectively divided according to the HFA-ICOS risk proforma. According to level of risk, these groups were assessed for rates of cardiotoxicity via mixed-effect Bayesian logistic regression model.
Results: A follow-up of five years observed cardiotoxicity of 3.3% (n = 3) in the low-risk, 3.3% (n = 10) in the medium-risk, 4.4% (n = 6) in the high-risk, and 38% (n = 6) in the very-high-risk groups respectively. For cardiac events related to treatment, the risk was significantly higher for the very-high-risk category of HFA-ICOS compared to other categories (Beta = 3.1, 95% CrI: 1.5, 4.8). For overall cardiotoxicity related to treatment, the area under the curve was 0.643 (CI 95%: 0.51, 0.76), with 26.1% (95% CI: 8%, 44%) sensitivity and 97.9% (95% CI: 96%, 99%) specificity.
Conclusions: The HFA-ICOS risk score has moderate power in predicting cancer therapy-related cardiotoxicity in HER2-positive breast cancer patients.
Keywords: HER2 therapy; anthracycline; breast cancer; heart failure; risk prediction.