Human activities are considered as the main driving forces of land use/land cover (LULC) variation at city scales. Monitoring the dynamic variation of LULC and its socioeconomic driving forces helps to reveal the response of LULC change to human activities and land use policies. However, this issue remains poorly understood. In this study, the spatiotemporal transitions among different LULC types during nearly three decades in Wuhan, China, were modeled in detail using the transfer matrix method. Ten socioeconomic factors indicating the population level, economic condition and social development were selected to quantitatively explain LULC variation. Some typical policies were discussed for the LULC transitions. The results showed that construction land was detected to continuously increase, with the fastest change rate of 560.48% during the 29-year period. Farmland area significantly declined by 1855 km2, decreasing by 31.21%, contributing to 86.14% of the area increase in construction lands. To some extent, the net area increase in construction land was at the expense of farmland area. All 10 indicators considered in this study were positively correlated with the construction land area (R2 of 0.783~0.970) and negatively correlated with farmland area (R2 of 0.861~0.979). In general, social and economic development contributed considerably to urban expansion and cultivated land loss. The largest contributors were non-agricultural population and economic conditions (secondary industry output, primary industry output and local revenues). Governmental guidance and behavior were considered the original impetus for LULC transition, while the impact of land use policies and human activities on LULC transitions varied across the subperiods. These findings provide decision-making support for appropriate urban planning and efficient land use management.
Keywords: driving force; land use/land cover; socioeconomic factor; spatiotemporal transition.