Development zone policy and urban carbon emissions: empirical evidence from the construction of national high-tech industrial development zones in China

Abstract

As a key strategy to promote system reform, improve the investment environment, and encourage industrial agglomeration, the national high-tech industrial development zone (NHTDZ) policy in China can not only reduce energy consumption through the scale effect but also improve energy efficiency by modernizing industrial structure and fostering technological innovation, thereby alleviating environmental pollution. Existing studies, however, focus solely on the effects of NHTDZ policy on social and economic development, ignoring their impact on the ecological environment, especially carbon (CO₂) emissions that contribute to global warming. Thus, this article analyzes a panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities and above in China from 2003 to 2019 to assess the influence of NHTDZ policy on CO₂ emissions, treating the NHTDZ construction since 1988 as a quasi-natural experiment. The results indicate that the NHTDZ policy would mitigate urban carbon emissions, particularly in middle, southeastern, medium-sized, resource-based (RB), non-key environmental protection (non-KEP), and non-two control zone (non-TCZ) cities. In addition, the mediation mechanism test demonstrates that the environmental benefits of the NHTDZ policy in China are attributable to the scale effect, the structural upgrading effect, and the technology innovation effect. The NHTDZ policy would lower per capita CO₂ emissions by reducing energy consumption, upgrading industrial structure, and promoting green technology innovation.

Keywords: China; Mediation mechanism; National high-tech industrial development zone; Time-varying DID model; Urban carbon emissions.