Estimating the serial intervals of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 variants in Hong Kong

Zihao Guo; Shi Zhao; Carrie Ho Kwan Yam; Conglu Li; Xiaoting Jiang; Tsz Yu Chow; Ka Chun Chong; Eng Kiong Yeoh

doi:10.1111/irv.13105

Estimating the serial intervals of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 variants in Hong Kong

Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2023 Feb 8;17(2):e13105. doi: 10.1111/irv.13105. eCollection 2023 Feb.

Authors

Zihao Guo¹, Shi Zhao^{1

2}, Carrie Ho Kwan Yam^{1

2}, Conglu Li¹, Xiaoting Jiang¹, Tsz Yu Chow^{1

2}, Ka Chun Chong^{1

2}, Eng Kiong Yeoh^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China.
² Centre for Health Systems and Policy Research, Faculty of Medicine Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong China.

Abstract

Empirical evidence on the epidemiological characteristics of the emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants could shed light on the transmission potential of the virus and strategic outbreak control planning. In this study, by using contact tracing data collected during an Omicron-predominant epidemic phase in Hong Kong, we estimated the mean serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.12.1 variants at 2.8 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.5, 6.7), 2.7 days (95% CrI: 2.1, 3.6), and 4.4 days (95% CrI: 2.6, 7.5), respectively, with adjustment for right truncation and sampling bias. The short serial interval for the current circulating variant indicated that outbreak mitigations through contact tracing and case isolation would be quite challenging.

Keywords: COVID‐19; Hong Kong; SARS‐CoV‐2 omicron variant; disease transmission; serial infection interval.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Contact Tracing
Hong Kong / epidemiology
Humans
SARS-CoV-2 / genetics

Supplementary concepts

SARS-CoV-2 variants