Integration of Moran's I, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and ordinary least square (OLS) models in spatiotemporal modeling of COVID-19 outbreak in Qom and Mazandaran Provinces, Iran

Vahid Isazade; Abdul Baser Qasimi; Pinliang Dong; Gordana Kaplan; Esmail Isazade

doi:10.1007/s40808-023-01729-y

Integration of Moran's I, geographically weighted regression (GWR), and ordinary least square (OLS) models in spatiotemporal modeling of COVID-19 outbreak in Qom and Mazandaran Provinces, Iran

Model Earth Syst Environ. 2023 Feb 15:1-15. doi: 10.1007/s40808-023-01729-y. Online ahead of print.

Authors

Vahid Isazade¹, Abdul Baser Qasimi², Pinliang Dong³, Gordana Kaplan⁴, Esmail Isazade⁵

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geographical Sciences, Khwarazm University, Tehran, Iran.
² Department of Geography, Education Faculty, Samangan University, Samangan, Afghanistan.
³ Department of Geography and the Environment, University of North Texas, 1155 Union Circle, Denton, #305279 TX 76203 USA.
⁴ Institute of Earth and Space Sciences, Eskisehir Technical University, Eskişehir, Turkey.
⁵ Department of Urban planning, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Globally, the COVID-19 pandemic is a top-level public health concern. This paper attempts to identify the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom and Mazandaran provinces, Iran using spatial analysis approaches. This study was based on secondary data of confirmed cases and deaths from February 3, 2020, to late October 2021, in two Qom and Mazandaran provinces from hospitals and the website of the National Institute of Health. In this paper, three geographical models in ArcGIS 10.8.1 were utilized to analyze and evaluate COVID-19, including geographic weight regression (GWR), ordinary least squares (OLS), and spatial autocorrelation (Moran I). The results from this study indicate that the rate of scattering of confirmed cases for Qom province for the period was 44.25%, while the rate of dispersal of the deaths was 4.34%. Based on the GWR and OLS model, Moran's statistics demonstrated that confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered followed a clustering pattern during the study period. Moran's Z-score for all three indicators of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered was confirmed to be greater than 2.5 (95% confidence level) for both GWR and OLS models. The spatial distribution of indicators of confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered based on the GWR model has been more scattered in the northwestern and southwestern cities of Qom province. Whereas the spatial distribution of the recoveries of the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom province was 61.7%, the central regions of this province had the highest spread of recoveries. The spatial spread of the COVID-19 pandemic from February 3, 2020, to October 2021 in Mazandaran province was 35.57%, of which 2.61% died, according to information published by the COVID-19 pandemic headquarters. Most confirmed cases and deaths are scattered in the north of this province. The ordinary least squares model results showed that the spatial dispersion of recovered people from the COVID-19 pandemic is more significant in the central and southern regions of Mazandaran province. The Z-score for the deaths Index is more significant than 14.314. The results obtained from this study and the information published by the National Headquarters for the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic showed that tourism and pilgrimages are possible factors for the spatial distribution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Qom and Mazandaran provinces. The spatial information obtained from these modeling approaches could provide general insights to authorities and researchers for further targeted investigations and policies in similar circumcises.

Keywords: COVID-19; Geographically weighted regression; Least squares model; Mazandaran; Qom; Spatial autocorrelation.

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2023, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.