Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort

Ping He; Yunfeng Li; Tongtong Huo; Fanyun Meng; Cheng Peng; Ming Bai

doi:10.3389/fpls.2023.1080881

Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort

Front Plant Sci. 2023 Feb 1:14:1080881. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1080881. eCollection 2023.

Authors

Ping He¹, Yunfeng Li^{1

2}, Tongtong Huo¹, Fanyun Meng¹, Cheng Peng³, Ming Bai⁴

Affiliations

¹ Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
² Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Research and Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengde Medical University, Chengde, China.
³ School of Pharmacy, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Zoological Systematics and Evolution, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

Abstract

Introduction: Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution.

Methods: The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained.

Results: The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were 2.06 ×10³ km² and 1.64 ×10⁴ km², respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current L. chuanxiong cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for L. chuanxiong planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing.

Discussion: Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of L. chuanxiong, but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.

Keywords: Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort; niche model; priority conservation area; scenario simulation model; soil cadmium pollution.

Grants and funding

Funding for our research was provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81072999) and the National Key Laboratory Construction Project (No. SKLTCM2022012).