Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics

Jiaqi Chen; Changgui Gu; Zhongyuan Ruan; Ming Tang

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113193

Competition of SARS-CoV-2 variants on the pandemic transmission dynamics

Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2023 Apr:169:113193. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113193. Epub 2023 Feb 10.

Authors

Jiaqi Chen¹, Changgui Gu¹, Zhongyuan Ruan², Ming Tang^{3

4}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Systems Science, Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, China.
² Institute of Cyberspace Security, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, China.
³ School of Physics and Electronic Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.
⁴ Shanghai Key Laboratory of Multidimensional Information Processing, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 has produced various variants during its ongoing evolution. The competitive behavior driven by the co-transmission of these variants has influenced the pandemic transmission dynamics. Therefore, studying the impact of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants on pandemic transmission dynamics is of considerable practical importance. In order to formalize the mechanism of competition between SARS-CoV-2 variants, we propose an epidemic model that takes into account the co-transmission of competing variants. The model focuses on how cross-immunity influences the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through competitive mechanisms between strains. We found that inter-strain competition affects not only both the final size and the replacement time of the variants, but also the invasive behavior of new variants in the future. Due to the limited extent of cross-immunity in previous populations, we predict that the new strain may infect the largest number of individuals in China without control interventions. Moreover, we also observed the possibility of periodic outbreaks in the same lineage and the possibility of the resurgence of previous lineages. Without the invasion of a new variant, the previous variant (Delta variant) is projected to resurgence as early as 2023. However, its resurgence may be prevented by a new variant with a greater competitive advantage.

Keywords: Competition between strains; Cross-immunity; Future variants; Periodicity; Resurgence of the previous strain.