The human gut microbiome harbors substantial ecological diversity at the species level as well as at the strain level within species. In healthy hosts, species abundance fluctuations in the microbiome are thought to be stable, and these fluctuations can be described by macroecological laws. However, it is less clear how strain abundances change over time. An open question is whether individual strains behave like species themselves, exhibiting stability and following the macroecological relationships known to hold at the species level, or whether strains have different dynamics, perhaps due to the relatively close phylogenetic relatedness of cocolonizing lineages. Here, we analyze the daily dynamics of intraspecific genetic variation in the gut microbiomes of four healthy, densely longitudinally sampled hosts. First, we find that the overall genetic diversity of a large majority of species is stationary over time despite short-term fluctuations. Next, we show that fluctuations in abundances in approximately 80% of strains analyzed can be predicted with a stochastic logistic model (SLM), an ecological model of a population experiencing environmental fluctuations around a fixed carrying capacity, which has previously been shown to capture statistical properties of species abundance fluctuations. The success of this model indicates that strain abundances typically fluctuate around a fixed carrying capacity, suggesting that most strains are dynamically stable. Finally, we find that the strain abundances follow several empirical macroecological laws known to hold at the species level. Together, our results suggest that macroecological properties of the human gut microbiome, including its stability, emerge at the level of strains. IMPORTANCE To date, there has been an intense focus on the ecological dynamics of the human gut microbiome at the species level. However, there is considerable genetic diversity within species at the strain level, and these intraspecific differences can have important phenotypic effects on the host, impacting the ability to digest certain foods and metabolize drugs. Thus, to fully understand how the gut microbiome operates in times of health and sickness, its ecological dynamics may need to be quantified at the level of strains. Here, we show that a large majority of strains maintain stable abundances for periods of months to years, exhibiting fluctuations in abundance that can be well described by macroecological laws known to hold at the species level, while a smaller percentage of strains undergo rapid, directional changes in abundance. Overall, our work indicates that strains are an important unit of ecological organization in the human gut microbiome.
Keywords: ecology; human gut microbiome; macroecology; metagenomics; strains.