Purpose: This study aimed to examine whether circulating tumor human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) DNA (ctHPV16DNA) can help identify patients with locally advanced HPV16-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma who may benefit from deintensified treatment.
Materials and methods: We serially collected blood samples before, during, and after treatment from 22 patients who received 70 Gy radiotherapy alone and longitudinally quantified ctHPV16DNA using droplet digital polymerase chain reaction. We correlated the clearance profile of ctHPV16DNA with clinical outcomes.
Results: The percentage of patients with detectable ctHPV16DNA decreased after every 10 Gy of radiotherapy. By contrast, the percentage of patients who later developed treatment failure among patients with detectable ctHPV16DNA gradually increased as radiotherapy proceeded, reaching 100% after 60 Gy of radiotherapy. We defined patients with and without detectable ctHPV16DNA after receiving 40 Gy as having slow and rapid clearance profiles, respectively. All 12 patients with a rapid clearance profile remained disease-free after radiotherapy. Of the 10 patients with a slow clearance profile, three had persistent or progressive disease at response evaluation after radiotherapy and one developed distant metastasis during follow-up (ie, four patients experienced treatment failure). The median follow-up for surviving patients was 38.6 months, and the 3-year failure-free survival rates of patients with rapid and slow clearance profiles were 100% and 58%, respectively (P = .02). Neither baseline ctHPV16DNA levels nor metabolic tumor volume was an independent predictor of the pattern of the clearance profile.
Conclusion: In patients with HPV16-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma receiving radiotherapy, a slow ctHPV16DNA clearance profile could prelude unfavorable outcomes. Monitoring ctHPV16DNA is essential for determining the clearance profile, which might help optimize treatment intensity individually.