Pediatric DUCT Score: A Highly Specific Predictive Model for Choledocholithiasis in Children

Abstract

Background: Current adult guidelines for the management of choledocholithiasis (CDL) may not be appropriate for children. We hypothesized adult preoperative predictive factors are not reliable for predicting CDL in children.

Study design: A multicenter retrospective cohort study was performed evaluating children (≤18 years of age) who underwent cholecystectomy for gallstone disease at 10 children's hospitals. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to identify factors independently associated with CDL. Patients were stratified into risk groups demonstrating the presence of predictive factors for CDL. Statistical analyses were performed, and chi-square analyses were used with a significance of p < 0.05.

Results: A total of 979 cholecystectomy patients were analyzed. The diagnosis of CDL was confirmed in 222 patients (22.7%) by magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography, endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, or intraoperative cholangiography. Three predictive factors were identified: (1) Dilated common bile duct ≥6 mm; (2) Ultrasound with Choledocholithiasis; and (3) Total bilirubin ≥1.8 mg/dL (pediatric DUCT criteria). Risk groups were based on the number of predictive factors: very high (3), high (2), intermediate (1), and low (0). The pediatric DUCT criteria demonstrated accuracies of >76%, specificity of >78%, and negative predictive values of >79%. Adult factors (elevated aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase, pancreatitis, BMI, and age) did not independently predict CDL. Based on risk stratification, the high- and very-high-risk groups demonstrated higher predictive capacity for CDL.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that the pediatric DUCT criteria, incorporating common bile duct dilation, choledocholithiasis seen on ultrasound, and total bilirubin ≥1.8 mg/dL, highly predicts the presence of choledocholithiasis in children. Other adult preoperative factors are not predictive of common bile duct stone in children.