Are economic growth and environmental pollution a dilemma?

Abstract

For the first time, this study introduces-proposes using the Armey curve hypothesis (ACH) for testing the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (EKCH) in the relevant literature. The rationale for this new proposed methodology is that both hypotheses are expected to have similar inverted U-shaped curves. Hence, we combine the aforementioned hypotheses to obtain a single composite model. This single model may allow us to calculate a maximum (optimum) level of government expenditures that will increase or decrease CO₂ emissions for USMCA (the USA-Mexico-Canada Agreement) countries. To this end, our study employs an augmented mean group (AMG) estimator. The results demonstrate that the EKCH is verified by way of the AC model only for Mexico. Additionally, with the advantage of this approach, we calculated the optimal government spending level, which will increase both per capita real GDP (RGDPPC) and CO₂ emissions in this country by around 26.4% of RGDPPC. This level of spending will be a kind of threshold point for the Mexican government's policymakers. Hence, they will know that if they continue to spend more than this level, both the RGDPPC and CO₂ emissions will decrease, implying either a lower RGDPPC or a cleaner environment. The primary purpose of the proposed methodology in this study is to reveal the possible effects of the government's economic growth-oriented increased public expenditures on the environment in a single composite model. In other words, the relationship between economic growth and the environment is approached from the perspective of public spending, and it is reminded that governments should have harmonious and sustainable public spending policies for both economic growth and a cleaner environment.

Keywords: Armey curve hypothesis; Augmented mean group estimator; CO2 emissions; Environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis.