Road crashes in Adelaide metropolitan region, the consequences of COVID-19

Ali Soltani; Mohammad Azmoodeh; Mohsen Roohani Qadikolaei

doi:10.1016/j.jth.2023.101581

Road crashes in Adelaide metropolitan region, the consequences of COVID-19

J Transp Health. 2023 May:30:101581. doi: 10.1016/j.jth.2023.101581. Epub 2023 Feb 3.

Authors

Ali Soltani^{1

2

3}, Mohammad Azmoodeh⁴, Mohsen Roohani Qadikolaei⁵

Affiliations

¹ Injury Studies, Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute, Bedford Park, SA, 5042, Australia.
² UniSA Business, University of South Australia, North Terrace, Adelaide, SA, 5001, Australia.
³ Faculty of Art and Architecture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
⁴ Department of Transportation and Highway, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran.
⁵ Department of Urban Planning, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.

Abstract

Background: Many countries instituted lockdown rules as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, however, the effects of COVID-19 on transportation safety vary widely across countries and regions. In several situations, it has been shown that although the COVID-19 closure has decreased average traffic flow, it has also led to an increase in speeding, which will indeed increase the severity of crashes and the number of fatalities and serious injuries.

Methods: At the local level, Generalized linear Mixed (GLM) modelling is used to look at how often road crashes changed in the Adelaide metropolitan area before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The Geographically Weighted Generalized Linear Model (GWGLM) is also used to explore how the association between the number of crashes and the factors that explain them varies across census blocks. Using both no-spatial and spatial models, the effects of urban structure elements like land use mix, road network design, distance to CBD, and proximity to public transit on the frequency of crashes at the local level were studied.

Results: This research showed that lockdown orders led to a mild reduction (approximately 7%) in crash frequency. However, this decrease, which has occurred mostly during the first three months of the lockdown, has not systematically alleviated traffic safety risks in the Greater Adelaide Metropolitan Area. Crash hotspots shifted from areas adjacent to workplaces and education centres to green spaces and city fringes, while crash incidence periods switched from weekdays to weekends and winter to summer.

Implications: The outcomes of this research provided insights into the impact of shifting driving behaviour on safety during disorderly catastrophes such as COVID-19.

Keywords: ABS, Australian bureau of statistics; Adelaide; CBD, Central business district; COVID-19; COVID19, Coronavirus disease of 2019; GLM; GLM, Generalized linear model; GWGLM; GWGLM, Geographically weighted generalized linear model; GWR, Geographically weighted regression; Injury; LGA, Local government area; PDO, Property damage only; RV, Response variable; SA1, Statistical area level 1; TAZ, Traffic analysis zone; Traffic crash.