Given the agricultural demand to supply animals with food, the scope of today's soybean production and international trade can influence the nitrogen cycle. Rather than using soybeans from within the region of animal production, animal producers import nutritional supplements from distant growers. This widely opens the biogeochemical cycle of nitrogen, which reduces local recycling and increases carriage of reactive nitrogen via the supply chain. Ultimately, this potentiates the effects of a "nitrogen cascade" process. This study estimates nitrogen flows for Brazilian soybean transported to feed European livestock and attempts to quantify the understanding of how this flow can impact the nitrogen cascade effect. The hypothesis is that the growing trade of Brazilian soybean products is sufficient to spike reactive nitrogen production that can potentially cause distant environmental impacts of the nitrogen cascade. In this respect, the estimation of the nitrogen flows was evaluated using material flow analysis, and the cascade effect was quantified by means of a nitrogen cascade indicator (NCI). Notably, NCI can calculate the released amount of nitrogen in the environment along the entire supply chain of livestock products. NCI-based evaluation of Brazilian soybean products consumed by European livestock indicated the accumulation of nitrogen levels. There was also an increase in nitrogen flows in the Brazilian phase (0.058 Gg in 2007 to 139.86 Gg in 2019 for soybean meal; 584.28 Gg in 2007 to 309.78 Gg in 2019 for soybeans) accompanying a stability in European livestock production. This highlights the necessity for adjustments in nitrogen circularity between all levels of food production and improved strategies of more localised feed autonomy for sustainable global development.
Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02034-1.
Keywords: Cascade effect; Circular economy; International trade; Material flow analysis; Sustainability.
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