With the gradual depletion of surface resources, rock instability caused by deep high stressand mining disturbance seriously affects safe mining. To create effective risk management, a rockinstability risk field model using microseismic monitoring data is proposed in this study. Rockinstability risk was presented visually in 3D visualization. The in-situ microseismic monitoringdata was collected and analyzed to make calculation of peak ground velocity (PGV), peak groundacceleration (PGA), energy flux, energy and seismic moment. Indicator weights of PGV, PGA, energyflux are confirmed by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to calculate risk severity. The Copulafunction is then used to solve the joint probability distribution function of energy and seismic moment.Then the spatial distribution characteristics of risk can be obtained by data fitting. Subsequently, thethree-dimensional (3D) risk field model was established. Meanwhile, the established risk field isverified by comparing monitoring data without disturbance and the blasting data with disturbance.It is suggested that the proposed risk field method could evaluate the regional risk of rock instabilityreasonably and accurately, which lays a theoretical foundation for the risk prediction and managementof rock instability in deep mining.
Keywords: microseismic monitoring; probability; risk assessment; risk field; severity.