The growing intensity and frequency of matches in professional football leagues are related to the increasing physical player load. An incorrect training model results in over- or undertraining, which is related to a raised probability of an injury. This research focuses on predicting non-contact lower body injuries coming from over- or undertraining. The purpose of this analysis was to create decision-making models based on data collected during both training and match, which will enable the preparation of a tool to model the load and report the increased risk of injury for a given player in the upcoming microcycle. For this purpose, three decision-making methods were implemented. Rule-based and fuzzy rule-based methods were prepared based on expert understanding. As a machine learning baseline XGBoost algorithm was considered. Taking into account the dataset used containing parameters related to the external load of the player, it is possible to predict the risk of injury with a certain precision, depending on the method used. The most promising results were achieved by the machine learning method XGBoost algorithm (Precision 92.4%, Recall 96.5%, and F1-score 94.4%).
Keywords: expert system; external training load; fuzzy rule-based method; injury prediction; rule-based system; sport data analysis.