Machine learning for quantile regression of biogas production rates in anaerobic digesters

Abstract

Anaerobic digestion is a well-established tool at wastewater treatment plants for processing raw sludge; it can also be used to generate renewable energy by harvesting biogas in anaerobic digesters. Operational parameters, such as temperature, are usually set by plant operators according to expert knowledge. To completely utilize the potential of operational management, in this study, we calibrated a novel Temporal Fusion Transformer based on six years of life-scale time series data together with categorical features such as public holidays. The model design allows for the interpretability of the output in contrast to traditional data-driven techniques, using multi-head attention. In addition to forecasting the median biogas production rates for the following seven days, our model also yields quantiles, making it less prone to strong fluctuations. We used three well-known statistical techniques as benchmarks. The mean absolute percentage error of our forecasting approach is below 8 %.

Keywords: Anaerobic digestion; Biogas; Machine learning; Static and temporal features; Temporal Fusion Transformer; Time series forecast.