Trend of myopia through different interventions from 2010 to 2050: Findings from Eastern Chinese student surveillance study

Xiyan Zhang; Yonlin Zhou; Yan Wang; Wei Du; Jie Yang

doi:10.3389/fmed.2022.1069649

Trend of myopia through different interventions from 2010 to 2050: Findings from Eastern Chinese student surveillance study

Front Med (Lausanne). 2023 Jan 18:9:1069649. doi: 10.3389/fmed.2022.1069649. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Xiyan Zhang^{1

2}, Yonlin Zhou¹, Yan Wang¹, Wei Du³, Jie Yang^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Child and Adolescent Health Promotion, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China.
² School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China.
³ School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, China.

Abstract

Purpose: First, to investigate the utilization rate and effect of proven myopic interventions. Second, to predict the prevalence of myopia and high myopia, as well as Years Lived with Disability (YLD) caused by an uncorrected refractive error in children and teens in Eastern China from 2010 to 2050 under different interventions.

Methods: (1) The surveillance of common diseases among children and adolescents in Jiangsu Province from 2010 to 2021 provides the database for myopia screening and intervention utilization surveys. (2) The National Bureau of Statistics and the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD2016) are the foundation for the estimated myopes and YLD. (3) A systematic review provides the strong or weak impact of intervention in the prediction model. (4) The trend of screening myopia from 2010 to 2050 under various treatments is predicted using a GM (1,1) model.

Results: By the year 2050, myopia is expected to affect 8,568,305 (7-12 years old) and 15,766,863 (13-18 years old) children and adolescents, respectively (95% CI: 8,398,977-8,737,633). The utilization prevalence of myopia-proven interventions for myopic children included outdoor activities, orthokeratology lenses, atropine treatment, contact lenses, frame glasses, and eye exercises, with respective rates of 31.9-33.1, 2.1-2.3, 6.0-7.5, 2.2-2.7, 60.4-62.2, and 64.7-72.5%. All interventions have substantial effects on myopia after parental myopia and behavior pattern adjustment, including physical activity, near work, dietary pattern, and sleep. Under strong intervention, the estimated reduced myopia prevalence by the year 2050 is 1,259,086 (95% CI: 1,089,758-1,428,414) for children aged 7-12, and 584,785 (95% CI: 562,748-606,823) for children aged 13-18, respectively.

Conclusion: Among myopic Chinese children and adolescents, the use rates and effects of proven myopia interventions vary. Under the present intervention strategy, the prevalence of myopia and high myopia will increase from 2010 to 2050. The overall number of myopic people can be greatly decreased by implementing timely, steady, comprehensive interventions.

Keywords: Eastern China; children and adolescents; interventions; myopia; prevalence trend.

Grants and funding

Annually Basic Public Health of Child and Adolescent Health (School Health) funding was covered by the Jiangsu Provincial Department of Finance and Jiangsu Provincial Health Committee for 2019–2020 (2019 64) and 2020–2021 (2020 124) (2020 52), respectively. The role of the funder(s) was not applicable in this study. This research was supported by a Demonstration Project of Comprehensive Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases (BE2015714) http://www.jshealth.com/xxgk/sewcjz/xmzl/sbjkt/201708/t20170830_59379.html (Fengyun Zhang).