Indium has emerged as a strategic metal for high-tech and renewable industries, being catalogued as a critical material to foster a greener future. Nevertheless, its global sustainability is not well addressed. Here, using dynamic substance flow analysis, we study the indium industry evolution between 2010 and 2020 and estimate its future demand in the medium and long term toward 2050 to identify potential paths and mechanisms to decrease indium losses and to identify the key stages in its life cycle. As electronics and photovoltaic industries will play a crucial role in the indium demand, we assess their indium demand employing three cumulative photovoltaic capacity scenarios (8.5, 14, and 60 TW by 2050) with different dominant photovoltaic sub-technologies. Results show that liquid-crystal displays and photovoltaic panels will drive indium future demand, increasing its current demand by 2.2-4.2, 2.6-7.0, and 6.8-38.3 times for the 8.5, 14, and 60 TW scenarios, respectively, threatening with shortages that could occur as early as the next decade. Therefore, measures to reduce losses in primary production, innovations and improvements in electronics and solar panels, and indium recycling with an effective circular economy strategy could promote and secure the future sustainability of indium.
Keywords: CIGS cells; circular economy; electrical and electronic equipment; recycling; substance flow analysis; sustainability.