Impact of LULC on debris flow using linear aggression model from Gilgit to Khunjerab with emphasis on urban sprawl

Abstract

In this research, the impact of land use and land cover (LULC) on debris flow was evaluated in the Gilgit to Khunjerab region. Two events have been done: (i) LULC stimulations for 2026 and 2030 using the MOLUSCE plugin and (ii) debris flow susceptibility mapping using linear aggression model. The evaluation of LULC on debris flow susceptibility is based on two scenarios: (i) existing (2010, 2014, 2018, 2022) LULC scenarios and (ii) stimulated (2026, 2030) LULC scenarios. The linear aggression model has 16 contributing factors to developing the debris flow susceptibility mapping. The main contributing components in debris flow susceptibility mapping are slope and LCCS. According to the linear aggressiveness model, debris flow susceptibility grows as the LULC changes, and the high susceptibility zones' share increases. For the current years 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022, as well as the stimulated years 2026 and 2030, the model had high success rates (> 90.0%) and prediction rates (> 85.0%). The findings backed up prior research and suggested that the impact of LULC will grow in the future.

Keywords: Debris flow; Gilgit; Khunjerab; LULC; Linear aggression model; Susceptibility mapping.