A nomogram diagnostic prediction model of pancreatic metastases of small cell lung carcinoma based on clinical characteristics, radiological features and biomarkers

Abstract

Objective: To investigate clinical characteristics, radiological features and biomarkers of pancreatic metastases of small cell lung carcinoma (PM-SCLC), and establish a convenient nomogram diagnostic predictive model to differentiate PM-SCLC from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAC) preoperatively.

Methods: A total of 299 patients with meeting the criteria (PM-SCLC n=93; PDAC n=206) from January 2016 to March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, including 249 patients from hospital 1 (training/internal validation cohort) and 50 patients from hospital 2 (external validation cohort). We searched for meaningful clinical characteristics, radiological features and biomarkers and determined the predictors through multivariable logistic regression analysis. Three models: clinical model, CT imaging model, and combined model, were developed for the diagnosis and prediction of PM-SCLC. Nomogram was constructed based on independent predictors. The receiver operating curve was undertaken to estimate the discrimination.

Results: Six independent predictors for PM-SCLC diagnosis in multivariate logistic regression analysis, including clinical symptoms, CA199, tumor size, parenchymal atrophy, vascular involvement and enhancement type. The nomogram diagnostic predictive model based on these six independent predictors showed the best performance, achieved the AUCs of the training cohort (n = 174), internal validation cohort (n = 75) and external validation cohort (n = 50) were 0.950 (95%CI, 0.917-0.976), 0.928 (95%CI, 0.873-0.971) and 0.976 (95%CI, 0.944-1.00) respectively. The model achieved 94.50% sensitivity, 83.20% specificity, 86.80% accuracy in the training cohort and 100.00% sensitivity, 80.40% specificity, 86.70% accuracy in the internal validation cohort and 100.00% sensitivity, 88.90% specificity, 87.50% accuracy in the external validation cohort.

Conclusion: We proposed a noninvasive and convenient nomogram diagnostic predictive model based on clinical characteristics, radiological features and biomarkers to preoperatively differentiate PM-SCLC from PDAC.

Keywords: contrast-enhanced CT; nomogram; pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas; pancreatic metastases; small cell lung carcinoma.