Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

Chaos. 2023 Jan;33(1):013124. doi: 10.1063/5.0123870.

Abstract

The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19* / epidemiology
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Hong Kong / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Pandemics
  • Respiratory Tract Infections*