Can the sustainable development goals for cancer be met in Brazil? A population-based study

Marianna De Camargo Cancela; Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Souza; Luís Felipe Leite Martins; Leonardo Borges; Arthur Orlando Schilithz; Paul Hanly; Linda Sharp; Alison Pearce; Isabelle Soejomataram

doi:10.3389/fonc.2022.1060608

Can the sustainable development goals for cancer be met in Brazil? A population-based study

Front Oncol. 2023 Jan 10:12:1060608. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2022.1060608. eCollection 2022.

Authors

Marianna De Camargo Cancela¹, Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Souza², Luís Felipe Leite Martins¹, Leonardo Borges¹, Arthur Orlando Schilithz¹, Paul Hanly³, Linda Sharp⁴, Alison Pearce⁵, Isabelle Soejomataram⁶

Affiliations

¹ Division of Surveillance and Data Analysis, Coordination of Prevention and Surveillance, Brazilian National Cancer Institute, Ministry of Health, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
² Department of Collective Health, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil.
³ School of Business, National College of Ireland, Dublin, Ireland.
⁴ Population Health Sciences Institute, Newcastle University Centre for Cancer, University of Newcastle, Newcastle Upon Tyne, United Kingdom.
⁵ Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.
⁶ Cancer Surveillance Unit, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.

Abstract

Background: A one-third reduction in premature mortality (30-69 years) from chronic noncommunicable diseases is goal 3.4 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG). The burden of NCDs is expected to continue to increase in low- and middle-income countries, including Brazil.

Objectives: The aim of this study was to assess geographical and temporal patterns in premature cancer mortality in Brazil between 2001 and 2015 and to predict this to 2030 in order to benchmark against the 3.4 SDG target.

Methods: We used data on deaths from cancer in those aged 30-69, by age group, sex and cancer site, between 2001 and 2015 from the National Mortality Information System of Brazil (SIM). After correcting for ill-defined causes, crude and world age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated nationally and for the 5 regions. Predictions were calculated using NordPred, up to 2030.

Results: The difference in observed (2011-2015) and predicted (2026-2030) mortality was compared against the SDG 3.4 target. Between 2011-2015 and 2026-2030 a 12.0% reduction in premature cancer age-standardised mortality rate among males and 4.6% reduction among females is predicted nationally. Across regions this varied from 2.8% among females in North region to 14.7% among males in South region. Lung cancer mortality rates are predicted to decrease among males but not among females nationally (men 28%, females 1.1% increase) and in all regions. Cervical cancer mortality rates are projected to remain very high in the North. Colorectal cancer mortality rates will increase for both sexes in all regions except the Southeast.

Conclusions and recommendation: Cancer premature mortality is expected to decrease in Brazil, but the extent of the decrease will be far from the SDG 3.4 target. Nationally, only male lung cancer will be close to reaching the SDG 3.4 target, reflecting the government's long-term efforts to reduce tobacco consumption. Projected colorectal cancer mortality increases likely reflect the epidemiological transition. This and, cervical cancer control will continue to be major challenges. These results will help inform strategic planning for cancer primary prevention, early detection and treatment programs; such initiatives should take cognizance of the regional differences highlighted here.

Keywords: cancer epidemiology; cancer premature mortality; mortality predictions; mortality trends; population-based; sustainable development goals.

Grants and funding

001/WHO_/World Health Organization/International