Influenza surveillance with Baidu index and attention-based long short-term memory model

Abstract

Background: The prediction and prevention of influenza is a public health issue of great concern, and the study of timely acquisition of influenza transmission trend has become an important research topic. For achieving more quicker and accurate detection and prediction, the data recorded on the Internet, especially on the search engine from Google or Baidu are widely introduced into this field. Moreover, with the development of intelligent technology and machine learning algorithm, many updated and advanced trend tracking and forecasting methods are also being used in this research problem.

Methods: In this paper, a new recurrent neural network architecture, attention-based long short-term memory model is proposed for influenza surveillance. This is a kind of deep learning model which is trained by processing from Baidu Index series so as to fit the real influenza survey time series. Previous studies on influenza surveillance by Baidu Index mostly used traditional autoregressive moving average model or classical machine learning models such as logarithmic linear regression, support vector regression or multi-layer perception model to fit influenza like illness data, which less considered the deep learning structure. Meanwhile, some new model that considered the deep learning structure did not take into account the application of Baidu index data. This study considers introducing the recurrent neural network with long short-term memory combined with attention mechanism into the influenza surveillance research model, which not only fits the research problems well in model structure, but also provides research methods based on Baidu index.

Results: The actual survey data and Baidu Index data are used to train and test the proposed attention-based long short-term memory model and the other comparison models, so as to iterate the value of the model parameters, and to describe and predict the influenza epidemic situation. The experimental results show that our proposed model has better performance in the mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, index of agreement and other indicators than the other comparison models.

Conclusion: Our proposed attention-based long short-term memory model vividly verifies the ability of this attention-based long short-term memory structure for better surveillance and prediction the trend of influenza. In comparison with some of the latest models and methods in this research field, the model we proposed is also excellent in effect, even more lightweight and robust. Future research direction can consider fusing multimodal data based on this model and developing more application scenarios.