Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example

Lintao Liu; Shouchao Yu; Hengjia Zhang; Yong Wang; Chao Liang

doi:10.3390/ijerph20021626

Analysis of Land Use Change Drivers and Simulation of Different Future Scenarios: Taking Shanxi Province of China as an Example

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 16;20(2):1626. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20021626.

Authors

Lintao Liu^{1

2}, Shouchao Yu¹, Hengjia Zhang^{1

2}, Yong Wang², Chao Liang²

Affiliations

¹ College of Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering, Liaocheng University, Liaocheng 252059, China.
² College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China.

Abstract

This study analyzed change and spatial patterns of land use in Shanxi from 2000 to 2020. The drivers of land use and cover change (LUCC) in cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas were explored from four dimensions, including population, natural environment, location traffic, and economic development. The CA-Markov model was used to simulate the scenarios of natural growth (NG), ecological protection (EP), economic development (ED), food security (FS), ecological protection-economic development (EP-ED), and ecological protection-food security (EP-FS) in 2030. The results indicated that: (1) The conversion to built-up areas primarily dominated the LUCC processes, and their expansion was mainly to the detriment of the cultivated lands and grasslands during 2000-2020. (2) From 2000 to 2020, population, economy, and land productivity were the main factors of LUCC; the interaction of drivers for the increase of cultivated lands, forest lands, grasslands, and rural construction areas showed enhancement. (3) Under the NG, ED, and EP-ED scenarios, the rural construction areas would have increased significantly, while under the FS and EP-FS scenarios, the cultivated lands would only just have increased. These future land use scenarios can inform decision-makers to make sound decisions that balance socio-economic, ecological, and food security benefits.

Keywords: CA-Markov; Shanxi; geographical detector; land driving factors; land use change; scenario simulation.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

China
Computer Simulation
Conservation of Natural Resources* / methods
Economic Development
Ecosystem
Forests*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52269008), the Industrial Support Plan Project of Gansu Provincial Department of Education (No. 2022CYZC-51), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51669001), and the Key Research and Planning Projects of Gansu Province (No. 18YF1NA073).