For Shenyang, the central city of Northeast China, its municipal-level Territorial Spatial Planning is of great significance to the whole of Northeast China. Territorial Spatial Planning is an essential carrier of China's ecological civilization construction. The demarcation of "three districts and three lines" defines the scope of ecological protection areas, which is of guiding significance to the future development of ecological civilization construction. The regional ecological vulnerability assessment can provide reference for ecological pattern planning and the demarcation of ecological red lines in "three districts and three lines". In order to explore the spatial distribution pattern of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang, predict the development trend of ecological vulnerability in the future and guide the construction of ecological civilization in Shenyang and provide certain basis for Shenyang's Territorial Spatial Planning and the delineation of "three districts and three lines". This paper based on the "sensitivity-resilience-pressure" model selected 13 indexes, to evaluate the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang from 2010 to 2020. Furthermore, the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang are summarized using spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographic detector model, and the future development trend of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang in 2025 is predicted by using CA-Markov model. The results show that: (1) In 2010, 2015 and 2020, the total area of slightly vulnerable areas in Shenyang was large, and the ecological vulnerability showed a gradually vulnerable spatial change trend from south to north and from west to east. (2) The results of geographical detectors show that normalized difference vegetation index, economic density and nighttime light intensity are the main driving factors of ecological vulnerability in Shenyang. (3) The forecast result of CA-Markov model is reliable. In 2025, the ecological vulnerability of Shenyang will be mainly light and extreme vulnerability areas, and the areas of light and extreme vulnerability areas will increase in 2025. The research results can provide some reference for the delineation of "three districts and three lines" and ecological protection in Shenyang's Territorial Spatial Planning, and have certain significance for promoting regional sustainable development and balancing ecological protection and economic development.
Keywords: GIS; Shenyang; ecological vulnerability; geodetector; principal component analysis; spatial autocorrelation.