China, the largest country in vegetable supply, faces a transition to sustainable vegetable production to counteract resource waste and environmental pollution. However, there are knowledge gaps on the main constraints and how to achieve sustainable vegetable supply. Herein, we integrated the vegetable production and supply data in China, compared its current status with five horticulture-developed countries US, the Netherlands, Greece, Japan and South Korea, using data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and National Bureau of Statistics of China, and predicted the vegetable supply in 2030 and 2050 by a model prediction. The vegetable supply in China increased from 592 g capita-1 d-1 in 1995 to 1262 g capita-1 d-1 in 2018 and will keep constant in 2030 and 2050. Compared to the five countries, the greater vegetable supply is primarily achieved by higher harvested areas rather than higher yield. However, it is predicted that the harvested areas will decrease by 13.6% and 24.7% in 2030 and 2050. Instead, steady increases in vegetable yield by 11.8% and 28.3% are predicted for this period. The high vegetable supply and greater vegetable preference indicated by the high vegetable-to-meat production ratio cannot guarantee recommended vegetable intake, potentially due to the high rate of vegetable loss and waste. Under the scenarios of decreased vegetable loss and waste, the harvested area will decrease by 37.3-67.2% in 2030 and 2050. This study points out that the sustainable transition of Chinese vegetable supply can be realized by enhancing yield and limiting vegetable loss and waste instead of expanding the harvested area.
Keywords: dietary pattern; food loss and waste; model prediction; vegetable supply pattern; vegetable yield.