Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Periampullary Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A SEER Database Analysis

Jinghua Chen; Qichen Chen; Yiqiao Deng; Yujuan Jiang; Zhen Huang; Jianguo Zhou; Hong Zhao; Jianqiang Cai

doi:10.3390/curroncol30010028

Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Periampullary Neuroendocrine Neoplasms: A SEER Database Analysis

Curr Oncol. 2022 Dec 26;30(1):344-357. doi: 10.3390/curroncol30010028.

Authors

Jinghua Chen¹, Qichen Chen¹, Yiqiao Deng¹, Yujuan Jiang², Zhen Huang¹, Jianguo Zhou¹, Hong Zhao¹, Jianqiang Cai¹

Affiliations

¹ Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.
² Department of Colorectal Surgery, National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China.

Abstract

(1) Background: Periampullary neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are rare tumors that lack a prognostic prediction model. We aimed to design comprehensive and effective nomograms to predict prognosis; (2) Methods: Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out significant variables for the construction of the nomograms. The discrimination and calibration of the nomograms were carried out using calibration plots, concordance indices (C-indices), and area under time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves (time-dependent AUCs). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to compare the clinical applicability of the nomograms, TNM (Tumor- Node-Metastasis) stage, and SEER stage; (3) Results: The independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with periampullary NENs included age, tumor size, histology, differentiation, N stage, M stage, and surgery, which were used to construct the nomograms. The calibration curves and C-indices showed a high degree of agreement between the predicted and actual observed survival rates. The AUCs displayed good calibration and acceptable discrimination of the nomograms. Additionally, the DCA curves indicated that the nomograms showed better clinical applicability; (4) Conclusions: We developed and validated nomogram prognostic models for patients with periampullary NENs. The nomograms provided insightful and applicable tools to evaluate prognosis.

Keywords: SEER; neuroendocrine neoplasms; nomogram; periampullary; prognosis.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Databases, Factual
Humans
Neoplasms*
Neoplasms, Second Primary*
Nomograms
Prognosis

Grants and funding

This APC was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (funder: Hong Zhao, funding number: 81972311), the Non-profit Central Research Institution Fund of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (funder: Hong Zhao, funding number: 2019PT310026) and Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (funder: Jianqiang Cai, funding number: SZSM202011010).