Development of a prototype modeling system to estimate the GHG mitigation potential of forest and wildfire management

C Smyth; S H Xie; T Zaborniak; M Fellows; C Phillips; W A Kurz

doi:10.1016/j.mex.2022.101985

Development of a prototype modeling system to estimate the GHG mitigation potential of forest and wildfire management

MethodsX. 2022 Dec 23:10:101985. doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2022.101985. eCollection 2023.

Authors

C Smyth¹, S H Xie^{1

2}, T Zaborniak¹, M Fellows¹, C Phillips³, W A Kurz¹

Affiliations

¹ Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 506 Burnside Road West, Victoria, BC V8Z 1M5, Canada.
² University of British Columbia, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada.
³ Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, PO Box 1700 Stn. CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada.

Abstract

Having recently experienced the three worst wildfire seasons in British Columbia's history in 2017, 2018 and 2021, and anticipating more severe impacts in the future, a key Carbon (C) research priority is to develop reliable models to explore options and identify a portfolio of regionally differentiated solutions for wildfire and forest management. We contribute to this effort by developing a prototype integrated C modeling framework which includes future wildfires that respond to forest stand characteristics and wildfire history. Model validation evaluated net GHG emissions relative to a 'do-nothing' baseline for several management scenarios and included emissions from forest ecosystems, harvested wood products and substitution benefits from avoided fossil fuel burning and avoided emissions-intensive materials. Data improvements are needed to accurately quantify the baseline and scenario GHG emissions, and to identify trade-offs and uncertainties. • A Fire Tolerant scenario included post-fire restoration with planting of climatically suitable fire-resistant species and salvage harvest in place of clearcut harvest.

Keywords: Climate change mitigation; GCBM; Prototype modeling system to estimate the GHG mitigation potential of forest and wildfire management; Restoration; Wildfire reduction.