Validation of risk scores for allograft failure after liver transplantation in Germany: a retrospective cohort analysis

Abstract

A growing number of clinical risk scores have been proposed to predict allograft failure after liver transplantation. However, validation of currently available scores in the Eurotransplant region is still lacking. We aimed to analyze all clinically relevant donor and recipient risk scores on a large German liver transplantation data set and performed a retrospective cohort analysis of liver transplantations performed at the Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin from January 2007 until December 2021 with organs from donation after brain death. We analyzed 9 previously published scores in 906 liver transplantations [Eurotransplant donor risk index (ET-DRI/DRI), donor age and model for end-stage liver disease (D-MELD), balance of risk (BAR), early allograft dysfunction (EAD), model for early allograft function (MEAF), liver graft assessment following transplantation (L-GrAFT7), early allograft failure simplified estimation (EASE), and a score by Rhu and colleagues). The EASE score had the best predictive value for 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month graft survival with a c-statistic of 0.8, 0.77, and 0.78, respectively. In subgroup analyses, the EASE score was suited best for male recipients with a high-MELD (>25) and an EAD organ. Scores only based on pretransplant data performed worse compared to scores including postoperative data (eg, ET-DRI vs. EAD, p<0.001 at 3-month graft survival). Out of these, the BAR score performed best with a c-statistic of 0.6. This a comprehensive comparison of the clinical utility of risk scores after liver transplantation. The EASE score sufficiently predicted 12-month graft and patient survival. Despite a relatively complex calculation, the EASE score provides significant prognostic value for patients and health care professionals in the Eurotransplant region.