Prediction of monthly precipitation using various artificial models and comparison with mathematical models

Abstract

Precipitation (PP) prediction is an interesting topic in the meteorology or hydrology field since it is directly related to agriculture, the management of water resources in hydrologic basins, and water scarcity. Selecting the right model to predict precipitation has always been a challenge because it could help researchers to use the proper model for their purposes. Accordingly, the performance of five artificial models (feed-forward neural network, cascade forward neural network, Elman neural network, multi-layer perceptron neural network, and radial basis neural network) and three mathematical models (Poisson regression model (PRM), quadratic model, and multiple linear regression) were evaluated for their ability to predict the monthly precipitation in Mediterranean coastal cities located in Eastern part of Mediterranean Sea for the first time. Twenty-seven Mediterranean coastal cities are considered case studies. For this aim, scenario 1 and scenario 2 with various input variables are proposed. Scenario 1 is developed using the number of months (MN), maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), downward radiation (DR), wind speed (WS), vapor pressure (VP), and actual evapotranspiration (AE). Scenario 2 is developed by adding geographical coordinates (latitude, longitude, and altitude) to the global meteorological data to see the impact of geographical coordinates on the accuracy of the prediction of monthly precipitation. This study utilized the monthly data, which were obtained from TerraClimate for the period from 2010 to 2021. Based on the performance indexes, the PRM model performed best for the prediction of monthly precipitation in all selected locations compared to other models. Moreover, the results indicate that scenario 2 ([Formula: see text]) has shown higher prediction accuracy compared to scenario 1 ([Formula: see text]). In conclusion, PRM with the combination of [[Formula: see text]] had RMSE value that was lower by 12% relative to PRM with the combination of [[Formula: see text]]. Consequently, the PRM model can be recommended for modeling the complexity of interactions for precipitation-climate conditions-geographical coordinates and predicting precipitation.

Keywords: Climate conditions; Geographical coordinates; Mediterranean coastal cities; Precipitation; TerraClimate.