Evaluating the temporal association between the recency of prescribed controlled substance acquisition and fatal and non-fatal opioid overdose

Abstract

Background: Previous studies have explored psychosocial effects as possible triggers of opioid overdose (OOD). However, little is known about the temporal association between OOD and prescribed controlled substance (CS) acquisition.

Objective: The objective of this study was to evaluate the temporal relationship between OOD and acquiring prescribed CSs prior to OOD.

Methods: This study is an exploratory descriptive analysis using Arkansas Prescription Drug Monitoring Program (AR-PDMP) data linked to death certificate and statewide inpatient discharge records. All persons with ≥1 AR-PDMP prescription fill(s) between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2017 were included (n = 1,946,686). For persons that experienced OOD and had ≥1 PDMP record(s), the difference in days between OOD and the most recent AR-PDMP prescription filled prior to an OOD was recorded. To account for censoring, a sensitivity analysis was conducted restricting the study group to "New AR-PDMP Entrants" that had at least a 180-day gap between consecutive AR-PDMP fill dates.

Results: 28,998,307 AR-PDMP records were analyzed for 1,946,686 individuals. 7195 persons experienced 9223 OODs and 414 (4.49%) of those were fatal. Of these, 6236 experienced ≥1 OOD and acquired prescribed CSs prior to or on the day of the first OOD. Of those that experienced ≥1 OOD(s), 2201 (30.59%) had an AR-PDMP record in the 0- to 5-day period prior to their overdose and 497 (6.91%) had an AR-PDMP record the day prior to their overdose. Among New AR-PDMP Entrants that experienced ≥1 OOD(s), 408 (27.38%) had an AR-PDMP record in the 0- to 5-day period prior to their overdose.

Conclusion: Though the vast majority of persons accessing CSs in Arkansas did not experience an OOD, a sizable proportion of persons that experience an OOD(s) obtained prescribed CSs immediately prior.