Bounding pandemic spread by heat spread

Teddy Lazebnik; Uri Itai

doi:10.1007/s10665-022-10253-4

Bounding pandemic spread by heat spread

J Eng Math. 2023;138(1):6. doi: 10.1007/s10665-022-10253-4. Epub 2023 Jan 6.

Authors

Teddy Lazebnik¹, Uri Itai²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Cancer Biology, Cancer Institute, University College London, London, UK.
² TRST AI, Tel Aviv, Israel.

Abstract

The beginning of a pandemic is a crucial stage for policymakers. Proper management at this stage can reduce overall health and economical damage. However, knowledge about the pandemic is insufficient. Thus, the use of complex and sophisticated models is challenging. In this study, we propose analytical and stochastic heat spread-based boundaries for the pandemic spread as indicated by the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. We study the spread of a pandemic on an interaction (social) graph as a diffusion and compared it with the stochastic SIR model. The proposed boundaries are not requiring accurate biological knowledge such as the SIR model does.

Keywords: Diffusion rate boundary; Graph-based stochastic SIR model; Partial-knowledge pandemic management.