Relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures reveals new challenges for infectious disease outbreak forecasting

Oliver J Brady; Barbara Hofmann; Felipe J Colón-González; Rory Gibb; Rachel Lowe; Gina Tsarouchi; Quillon Harpham; Darren Lumbroso; Phan Trong Lan; Vu Sinh Nam

doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00003-8

Relaxation of anti-COVID-19 measures reveals new challenges for infectious disease outbreak forecasting

Lancet Infect Dis. 2023 Feb;23(2):144-146. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00003-8. Epub 2023 Jan 6.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK. Electronic address: oliver.brady@lshtm.ac.uk.
² HR Wallingford, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK.
³ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK; Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
⁴ Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK; People and Nature Lab, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK.
⁵ Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain.
⁶ General Department of Preventive Medicine, Hanoi, Vietnam.
⁷ National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology, Hanoi, Vietnam.

No abstract available

MeSH terms

COVID-19* / epidemiology
Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control
Forecasting
Humans

Grants and funding

MR/V031112/1/MRC_/Medical Research Council/United Kingdom