Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios

Xiaowei Yao; Ting Luo; Yingjun Xu; Wanxu Chen; Jie Zeng

doi:10.3390/ijerph20010182

Prediction of Spatiotemporal Changes in Sloping Cropland in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Region under Different Scenarios

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec 23;20(1):182. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20010182.

Authors

Xiaowei Yao^{1

2}, Ting Luo³, Yingjun Xu¹, Wanxu Chen^{3

4}, Jie Zeng^{2

3}

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Administration and Laws, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China.
² Key Laboratory of Legal Research of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Wuhan 430074, China.
³ School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China.
⁴ State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.

Abstract

With the rapid urban expansion and extensive occupation of cropland, sloping cropland has become an important cropland resource across China. How sloping cropland will change under different socioeconomic scenarios is poorly understood. Therefore, we modeled land-cover change using SSP-RCP multi-scenario simulations and analyzed the evolution and driving factors of sloping cropland change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Region (MRYRR). The results indicate the following: In the past twenty years, the cropland and sloping cropland areas in this region declined but the proportion of sloping cropland in total area has been increasing. The average slope of sloping cropland has increased from 7.95° to 8.28°. By 2035, the sloping cropland and total cropland areas will continue to decrease according to the current trend (SSP2-4.5). The average slope will increase maximally to 8.63° under the SSP4-3.4 scenario and minimally to 8.45° under the SSP4-6.0 scenario. Under SSP4-3.4, the extent of slope increase will exceed that in 2005-2010, when regional cropland slope showed the strongest increase in the past. Among 14 social, economic, and ecological factors, average annual precipitation and GDP contributed the most to the change in sloping cropland. This study provides support for decision-making in sustainable land resource allocation to balance urban expansion and cropland conservation.

Keywords: PLUS; SSP-RCP; driving factors; middle reaches of the Yangtze River region (MRYRR); slope spectrum; sloping cropland.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

China
Conservation of Natural Resources* / methods
Crops, Agricultural
Rivers*

Grants and funding

This research was co-funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant number: 42001231) and Humanities and Social Sciences Research Project of the Ministry of Education of China (grant number: 19YJCZH224).