The use of historical asbestos measurement data in occupational exposure assessment is essential as it allows more quantitative analysis of possible exposure response relationships in asbestos-related disease (ARD) occurrence. The aim of this study was to predict possible ARDs, namely lung cancer, mesothelioma, gastrointestinal cancer, and asbestosis, in two chrysotile asbestos cement (AC) manufacturing factories. Prediction of ARDs was done using a specific designed job-exposure matrix for airborne chrysotile asbestos fibre concentrations obtained from the Harare and Bulawayo AC factories and through application of OSHA's linear dose effect model in which ARDs were estimated through extrapolation at 1, 10, 20, and 25 years of exposure. The results show that more cancer and asbestosis cases are likely to be experienced among those exposed before 2008 as exposure levels and subsequently cumulative exposure were generally much higher than those experienced after 2008. After a possible exposure period of 25 years, overall cancer cases predicted in the Harare factory were 325 cases per 100,000 workers, while for the Bulawayo factory, 347 cancer cases per 100,000 workers exposed may be experienced. Possible high numbers of ARDs are likely to be associated with specific tasks/job titles, e.g., saw cutting, kollergang, fettling table, ground hard waste, and possibly pipe-making operations, as cumulative exposures, though lower than reported in other studies, may present higher risk of health impairment. The study gives insights into possible ARDs, namely lung cancer, mesothelioma, gastrointestinal cancer, and asbestosis, that may be anticipated at various cumulative exposures over 1, 10, 20, and 25 years of exposure in AC manufacturing factories in Zimbabwe. Additionally, results from the study can also form a basis for more in-depth assessment of asbestos cancer morbidity studies in the AC manufacturing industries.
Keywords: Zimbabwe; asbestos related diseases; chrysotile; cumulative exposure; exposure concentration; prediction.