Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Yanlei Feng; Robinson I Negrón-Juárez; David M Romps; Jeffrey Q Chambers

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Nat Commun. 2023 Jan 6;14(1):101. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1.

Authors

Yanlei Feng¹, Robinson I Negrón-Juárez², David M Romps^{2

3}, Jeffrey Q Chambers^{4

2}

Affiliations

¹ Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. ylfeng@berkeley.edu.
² Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA.
³ Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
⁴ Department of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.

Abstract

Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

Climate Change
Forests*
Global Warming*
Trees
Wind