Study and prediction of the 2022 global monkeypox epidemic

Fengying Wei; Zhihang Peng; Zhen Jin; Jinjie Wang; Ximing Xu; Xinyan Zhang; Jun Xu; Zixiong Ren; Yao Bai; Xiaoli Wang; Bulai Lu; Zhaojun Wang; Jianguo Xu; Senzhong Huang

doi:10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.001

Study and prediction of the 2022 global monkeypox epidemic

J Biosaf Biosecur. 2022 Dec;4(2):158-162. doi: 10.1016/j.jobb.2022.12.001. Epub 2022 Dec 22.

Authors

Fengying Wei^{1

2}, Zhihang Peng³, Zhen Jin⁴, Jinjie Wang⁵, Ximing Xu⁶, Xinyan Zhang⁷, Jun Xu⁸, Zixiong Ren⁸, Yao Bai⁹, Xiaoli Wang¹⁰, Bulai Lu¹¹, Zhaojun Wang⁸, Jianguo Xu^{12

2}, Senzhong Huang^{13

2}

Affiliations

¹ School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, Fujian, China.
² Institute of Public Health, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China.
³ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, Jiangsu, China.
⁴ Complex Systems Research Center, Key Discipline of Computer Science and Technology of "Double -First-Class" Project of Shanxi Province, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006, Shanxi, China.
⁵ Nankai Institute of Economics, Binhai Development Institute, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China.
⁶ Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400010, China.
⁷ Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinzhou 121000, Liaoning, China.
⁸ School of Statistics and Data Science, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China.
⁹ Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an 710061, Shaanxi, China.
¹⁰ Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100013, Beijing, China.
¹¹ Suzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Suzhou 215004, Jiangsu, China.
¹² State Key Laboratory of Communicable Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
¹³ School of Statistics and Data Science, ZhiYing Research Center for Health Data, Nankai University, Tianjin 300071, China.

Abstract

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) on July 23, 2022, their highest level of alert. This raised concerns about the management of the global monkeypox outbreak, as well as the scientific analysis and accurate prediction of the future course of the epidemic. This study used EpiSIX (an analysis and prediction system for epidemics based on a general SEIR model) to analyze the monkeypox epidemic and to forecast the major tendencies based on data from the USA CDC (https://www.cdc.gov) and the WHO (https://www.who.int/health-topics/monkeypox). The global outbreak of monkeypox started in the UK on May 2, 2022, which marked the beginning of an epidemic wave. As of October 28, 2022, the cumulative number of reported cases worldwide was 77,115, with 36 deaths. EpiSIX simulations predict that the global monkeypox epidemic will enter a low epidemic status on March 1, 2023 with the cumulative number of confirmed cases ranging from 85,000 to 124,000, and the total number of deaths ranging from 60 to 87. Our analysis revealed that the basic reproduction number (R0) of monkeypox virus (MPXV) is near to 3.1 and the percentage of asymptomatic individuals is 13.1 %-14.5 %, both of which are similar to the data for SARS. The vaccination efficiency against susceptibility (VEs) of individuals who have had monkeypox is ∼ 79 %, and the vaccination efficiency against infectiousness (VEi) of individuals who have had monkeypox is ∼ 76 %-82 %. The mean incubation period for monkeypox is 8 days. In total, 94.7 % of infected individuals develop symptoms within 20 days and recover within 2 weeks after the confirmation of symptoms. Simulation results using EpiSIX showed that ring vaccination was remarkably effective against monkeypox. Our findings confirmed that a 20-day isolation for close contacts is necessary.

Keywords: Epidemic; Monkeypox; Prediction; Tendency.