Cardiorespiratory fitness estimations and their ability to predict all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease

James E Peterman; Codie R Rouleau; Ross Arena; Sandeep Aggarwal; Stephen B Wilton; Trina Hauer; Matthew K MacDonald; Leonard A Kaminsky

doi:10.1016/j.ijcrp.2022.200154

Cardiorespiratory fitness estimations and their ability to predict all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease

Int J Cardiol Cardiovasc Risk Prev. 2022 Oct 23:15:200154. doi: 10.1016/j.ijcrp.2022.200154. eCollection 2022 Dec.

Authors

James E Peterman^{1

2}, Codie R Rouleau^{3

4}, Ross Arena^{2

4

5}, Sandeep Aggarwal^{4

6}, Stephen B Wilton^{4

6}, Trina Hauer⁴, Matthew K MacDonald⁶, Leonard A Kaminsky^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ Fisher Institute of Health and Well-Being, College of Health, Ball State University, Muncie, IN, USA.
² Healthy Living for Pandemic Event Protection (HL - PIVOT) Network, Chicago, IL, USA.
³ Department of Psychology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
⁴ TotalCardiology Research Network, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
⁵ Department of Physical Therapy, College of Applied Science, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
⁶ Libin Cardiovascular Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.

Abstract

Background: In cardiac rehabilitation programs, cardiorespiratory fitness is commonly estimated (eCRF) from the maximum workload achieved on a graded exercise test. This study compared four well-established eCRF equations in their ability to predict mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Methods: A total of 7269 individuals with CVD were studied (81% male; age 59.4 ± 10.3yr). eCRF was calculated using equations from the American College of Sports Medicine, Bruce et al., the Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise International Database, and McConnell and Clark. The eCRF from each equation was compared with a RMANOVA. Cox proportional hazard models assessed the relationship between the eCRF equations and mortality risk. The predictive ability of the models was compared using the concordance index.

Results: There were 284 deaths (85% male) over a follow-up period of 5.8 ± 2.8yr. Although differences in eCRF were observed between each equation (P < 0.05), the eCRF from each of the four equations was predictive of mortality (P < 0.05). The concordance index values for each of the models were the same (0.77) indicating similar predictive performance.

Conclusions: The four well-established eCRF equations did not differ in their ability to predict mortality in patients with CVD, indicating any could be used for this purpose. However, the differences in eCRF from each of the equations suggest potential differences in their ability to guide clinical care and should be the focus of future research.

Keywords: Exercise test; Fitness algorithm; Prediction equation; Prognosis.