How does COVID-19 affect the implementation of CORSIA?

Weijun Liao; Ying Fan; Chunan Wang

doi:10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102180

How does COVID-19 affect the implementation of CORSIA?

J Air Transp Manag. 2022 Mar:99:102180. doi: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102180. Epub 2022 Jan 6.

Authors

Weijun Liao¹, Ying Fan¹, Chunan Wang^{1

2

3}

Affiliations

¹ School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China.
² Beihang Hangzhou Innovation Institute Yuhang, Hangzhou, China.
³ MoE Key Laboratory of Complex System Analysis and Management Decision, Beijing, China.

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of COVID-19 on the implementation of Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). By using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) aviation data, the forecast methods of Gompertz and Logistic curves and four COVID-19 scenarios, we find the following results. First, the international aviation activities of developing countries are on the track of rapid growth, while the trends of developed countries are relatively slow or even close to saturation. Second, our results provide retrospective support for the decision of the ICAO Council to revise the implementation baseline of CORSIA. The adjustment of the baseline has saved countries considerable purchasing offsetting costs, especially for China, the United States, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom. Third, although the adjustment of the baseline can lower the economic pressure of the global aviation industry, CORSIA will still bring considerable financial burden to international aviation enterprises.

Keywords: Aviation carbon emissions; Baseline adjustment; CORSIA; COVID-19; Offset.