Time above range for predicting the development of type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Aim: To investigate the prognostic value of time range metrics, as measured by continuous glucose monitoring, with respect to the development of type 2 diabetes (T2D).

Research design and methods: A total of 499 persons without diabetes from the general population were followed-up for 5 years. Time range metrics were measured at the start and medical records were checked over the period study.

Results: Twenty-two subjects (8.3 per 1,000 person-years) developed T2D. After adjusting for age, gender, family history of diabetes, body mass index and glycated hemoglobin concentration, multivariate analysis revealed 'time above range' (TAR, i.e., with a plasma glucose concentration of >140 mg/dL) to be significantly associated with a greater risk (OR = 1.06, CI 1.01-1.11) of developing diabetes (AUC = 0.94, Brier = 0.035).

Conclusions: Time above range provides additional information to that offered by glycated hemoglobin to identify patients at a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes in a population-based study.

Keywords: continuous glucose monitor system; diabetes prediction and prevention; diabetes risk; primary care; type 2 diabetes.