Spatial-temporal clustering of an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Guangzhou, China in 2021

Abstract

Background: In May 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant led to the first local outbreak in China in Guangzhou City. We explored the epidemiological characteristics and spatial-temporal clustering of this outbreak.

Methods: Based on the 153 cases in the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant outbreak, the Knox test was used to analyze the spatial-temporal clustering of the outbreak. We further explored the spatial-temporal clustering by gender and age groups, as well as compared the changes of clustering strength (S) value between the two outbreaks in Guangzhou.

Results: The result of the Knox analysis showed that the areas at short distances and brief periods presented a relatively high risk. The strength of clustering of male-male pairs was higher. Age groups showed that clustering was concentrated in cases aged ≤ 18 years matched to 18-59 years and cases aged 60+ years. The strength of clustering of the outbreak declined after the implementation of public health measures. The change of strength of clustering at time intervals of 1-5 days decreased greater in 2021 (S = 129.19, change rate 38.87%) than that in 2020 (S = 83.81, change rate 30.02%).

Conclusions: The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta VOC in Guangzhou has obvious spatial-temporal clustering. The timely intervention measures are essential role to contain this outbreak of high transmission.

Keywords: COVID-19; Knox analysis; SARS-CoV-2 Delta; intervention measures; spatial-temporal clustering.