Endocarp development in olive trees includes three periods: growth (Period I), massive sclerification (Period II) and maximum hardening (Period III). The two first are strongly related to yield and irrigation management. Period I was reported to coincide with mesocarp cell division and thus with final fruit size. Period II was considered to be the most drought-resistant phenological stage. However, little is known in olive trees about the length of these periods and their capacity for predicting fruit size at harvest. The aim of this work was to evaluate the length of both periods in different cultivars and different location of full irrigated orchards. We also aimed to study the fruit feature impact on harvest at the end of Period I. Data from full irrigated olive orchards of cv Cornicabra, Arbequina and Manzanilla in two different locations (Ciudad Real, Central Spain, and Seville, South Spain) were used. The pattern of pit-breaking pressure throughout the season was measured with fruit samples for several years (2006 to 2022). These data and climatic data were used to compare different estimation methods for the length of Period I and II of endocarp development. Then, fruit volume and dry weight at the end of Period I were used to estimate fruit features at harvest. Results suggest that the Period I length was less temperature- and cultivar-dependent than expected. The duration of this period was almost constant at around 49 days after full bloom. Thermal time was negatively correlated with fruit size at the end of Period I. On the contrary, a lineal thermal model presented the lowest variability when estimating the Period II length, which was also affected by the cultivar. The best fit between fruit dry weight and volume at Period I vs. harvest was unique for oil cultivars (Cornicabra and Arbequina), while cv Manzanilla presented a different relationship. A temperature increase in the future would not affect the Period I length but would reduce the fruit size at the end of this period and at harvest.
Keywords: fruit dry weight; fruit growth; fruit size; pit hardening; pit-breaking pressure.